![]() Also avoid areas south of even small towns. Nights with lots of moonlight will tend to “wash out” the aurora. In order to see the Northern Lights you need dark, cloud free skies with open views to the North and Northeast. ![]() I watched the parents raise triplets recently near my home at the northern edge of Duluth. Immediate Forecasts are very good and use Ovation Aurora which measures current conditions on earth and makes predictions for 20 to 40 minutes in the future.Ī Quick Timeout … Would you like to download a free PDF copy of my latest children’s picture book, Do You Hoot? The book is the story of the Amity Owlets. something that happened up to 28 days ago in the past) Long term forecasts are based upon the last time a particular spot on the sun was pointed towards earth (i.e. Thus, while short term forecasting is MUCH better than long term forecasts, it is still problematic. NASA and NOAA attempt to measure CME’s using satellites and telescopes. Questions arise about CME size, strength, direction/angle, etc. Obviously it is impossible to stand on the surface of the sun to measure a CME. Coronal Mass Ejections (CME’s) often take up to 72 hours to reach earth. Question and Answer: Why are long term forecasts unreliable, but short term forecasts are decent? A short term forecast of 72 hours or less is based upon actual observed current conditions on the surface of the sun. increasing or decreasing power numbers noted over a few hours) If you see lots of bright colors (reds and oranges), and power readings way above 50 GW, get outside and look north! Pay attention to trends (i.e. In northern Minnesota I like power numbers greater than 45 GW (see upper right hand corner of map). Upon linking to the site, you will see a image of the northern hemisphere.
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